Fed Week Uncertainty Makes For Logical Consolidation Bonds rallied sharply just over a month ago following a downbeat jobs report and other data.  They then consolidated ahead of the early September data before rallying just a bit more.  The present week didn't add much to the broader context and thus… Read more

We've talked a lot about why the Fed rate cut will have no additional positive impact on mortgage rates next week.  Everything the market can already reasonably foresee about what the Fed might do is already reflected in today's mortgage rates. In other words, much of the sharp mortgage rate… Read more

“I pay you to handle my loan and give me a good program with a competitive rate, not predict things you can’t.” At a recent event, a top originator told me that a borrower stated that. I continue to see LOs of all types (bank, credit union, IMB, broker, DTC,… Read more

Today's only potentially relevant economic data was the 10am Consumer Sentiment data.  This report comes out twice a month, once in "preliminary" form earlier in the month and then in "final" form 2 weeks later.  The first release is typically the only shot for a noticeable market reaction as the… Read more

Modest Resistance, But No Big Bad Correction Unless Friday's Consumer Sentiment data manages to surprise in some completely unprecedented way, bonds have made it through the week of economic reports and Treasury auctions without looking any worse for the wear.  Thursday saw a small amount of ground conceded, but not… Read more

While it's true that there have only been 8 business days so far this month, it's also true that today is the only one of the 8 where mortgage rates haven't been lower than the previous day for the average lender.  That's the bad news. The good news is that… Read more

“Honey, what did you do today?” “Well…” People do some cockamamie stuff against all odds. What are the odds of a lender or LO retaining their client after the loan has been brokered out or the servicing’s been sold? UWM released KEEP, “an industry-leading technology that utilizes AI to send… Read more

Thursday brings this week's last opportunity for the market to react to moderately important economic data before next week's Fed announcement.  So far, it looks like fireworks are not on the menu.  Heavy lifting was left to only two reports: Jobless Claims and PPI.  Neither are true top tier reports,… Read more

Does Today's Inflation Data Change Anything? Bonds initially sold off following the higher-than-expected core CPI reading this morning.  Shelter inflation spiked back to troubling territory as well–something that was perhaps an even bigger problem for bonds.  Nonetheless, bonds moved back to stronger territory in short order.  The only lingering damage… Read more

Mortgage rates moved lower again today despite a key inflation report coming in higher than expected.  This is counterintuitive for anyone who's been following rate movement closely over the past few years.   During that time, inflation reports have had a strong, direct connection to mortgage rate volatility with higher inflation… Read more

When I board an airplane, it is to go from point A to point B, like today from Denver to San Francisco. As long as it’s on time and somewhat economical, put me in whatever seat in steerage. But others, apparently, want to savor the experience in comfort. Swiss Air… Read more

Heading into today's CPI data, there were valid doubts about the data's role as one of the two biggest market movers (the jobs report being the other).  Those doubts proved to be well founded as far as MBS and Treasuries are concerned with all of the initial reaction being erased… Read more

Will The Market Still Care About CPI? Ask anyone who's been following the rate market for many years what the most important economic report is and you're far more likely to hear "the jobs report" than any other answer.  But at many times over the past 2-3 years, the Consumer… Read more

Mortgage rates are based on trading in the bond market and bonds consistently take cues from economic data.  Among the data, some reports are vastly more important than others–as we've seen after several recent examples of the jobs report. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is another extremely important report.  At… Read more

Every once in a while, a new loan program is “invented.” Lenders have to make sure they’re doing it correctly. (Don’t try this at home.) At events around the nation, invention may not be first and foremost but adjusting business models and paying close attention to trends is. Topics like… Read more