As President Jimmy Carter celebrated his 99th birthday seven months into hospice, welcome to the 4th quarter! (Will lenders experience any “Q-4-ia”? Say out loud.) Let’s talk U.S. lists! California, Indiana, Michigan, Texas, and Virginia are top five in pumpkin growing. The National Association of Realtors, U.S. Chamber of Commerce,… Read more

Nearly 2 weeks ago, the Fed announcement (specifically, the economic projections and dot plot) kicked off a repricing trend in the bond market otherwise known as "higher for longer."  The net effect had been excess upward pressure on longer-term yields and a modest decline in shorter-term yields. Bonds managed to… Read more

It depends quite a bit on the lender in question, but at some point between yesterday morning and this morning, the average lender dropped rates at the fastest single-day pace in months. Before you get excited, there's a catch–two or three of them actually. The first catch is that some… Read more

Bonds Almost Hold Onto Gains Ahead of Shutdown Uncertainty Bonds improved moderately overnight, adding onto what was already a fairly substantial recovery yesterday.  The morning's PCE data was slightly lower than expected, but bonds didn't seem unequivocally happy about that.  There was a modest extension of the rally and then… Read more

The trading day began on a fairly positive note with a strong hand-off from Europe and reasonably friendly inflation data at 8:30am.  After a few moments of indecision, bonds rallied modestly on the data, but have been giving back the gains as we head into the PM hours.  The rest… Read more

Shutdown or no shutdown, the National Park Service’s Fat Bear Week is approaching, focused on how these behemoths tip the scale. Here’s your tip of the day: Having books in your Zoom background makes you seem more trustworthy. What if one of them is “The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Mortgages”?… Read more

Bonds Bounce Despite Stronger Data Bonds lost ground overnight and logically added to the losses after the morning's Jobless Claims data.  Dovish comments from Fed's Goolsbee helped push back in the other direction and month-end tradeflows added to gains in the afternoon.  All told, it was a token correction much… Read more

The past few days have seen rates surge to new multi-decade highs with the average lender quoting 7.6+ for top tier conventional 30yr fixed scenarios. Not too much has changed today apart from the direction of the movement and the fact that modest gains weren't brutally dashed as the day… Read more

Pending home sales failed to add a third month onto the mini rally it staged in June and July. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said its Pending Home Sale Index (PHSI) declined 7.1 percent to 71.8 in August and is now down 18.7 percent from its August 2022 level…. Read more

Bonds lost ground modestly overnight.  Contrast that to the past few trading sessions that have seen gains in Europe followed by selling in the US.  Then at the start of the domestic session, economic data added to the weakness, but not before a quick, paradoxical blip into stronger territory.  This… Read more

Seen on someone’s laptop here in Phoenix: “If Pete Davidson can date a Kardashian, you can be a homeowner.” From a business viewpoint, if you think mortgages are bad, try NFTs. I don’t know what I was thinking, sinking my entire 401(k) into that sector a few years ago. My… Read more

It's with no great pleasure (none of any kind, for that matter) that we find ourselves in a position to report, yet again, that mortgage rates have sailed decisively to another new multi-decade high.  Today's installment is fairly unpleasant given that the average lender actually began the day in slightly… Read more

What is "Repricing" in The Broader Context, And How is it Moving Markets? We've been here before and we'll be here again, but each time feels like a surprising new twist on what we think we know about bond market motivations.  The key word is "repricing," and we're not talking… Read more

Normally, when the bond market is in a pervasive selling trend, we'll see a day or two of reprieve amidst the carnage.  Frequently, such days are friendly enough to lead to questions about whether they're evidence of a bounce.  At the very least, when trading levels are much stronger on the morning… Read more

Today I head to Phoenix area for the AzAMP annual conference, and am reminded that, “Change is inevitable, except from a vending machine.” The mortgage industry is constantly changing, although Freddie and Fannie have been a somewhat stabilizing influence. But explaining to someone not in the mortgage business what they,… Read more