Calm Week So Far, But All Bets Are Off After Jobs Report Bonds were slightly weaker overnight and did just a bit more selling after the Jobless Claims data, but the losses were erased by the early afternoon.  Even then, they were never that big in the first place.  The muted… Read more

It's been a remarkably calm week for mortgage rates, and a fairly decent one relative to several recent examples.  The average top tier 30yr fixed rate hovered just over 7% for most of November before breaking back into the high 6% range at the beginning of last week.  Since then,… Read more

Don’t steal packages off of porches… you never know what will be inside them… A very low-tech attempt at dissuading thieves. On the flip side, what do Signal, iMessage, and WhatsApp, used by some originators in communicating with borrowers, have in common? Apparently, per the FBI, they’re “encrypted” and have… Read more

Jobless Claims  224k vs 215k f'cast, 213k prev Continued Claims 1871k vs 1910k f'cast, 1896k prev At first glance, the 224k figure in jobless claims may seem like a moderately positive thing for bonds, but our ongoing chart of non-seasonally adjusted data shows that it's a bit misleading.  This was… Read more

No Whammies From Powell as Rates Rally on ISM Data Bonds came away from this morning's economic data with a tailwind that helped turn losses into gains.  The ISM Services PMI was the biggest contributor.  In addition to headline PMI being much weaker than expected, the employment index was also lower… Read more

Mortgage lenders generally try to avoid setting rates more than once per day, but they will make changes if the underlying bond market is moving enough.  Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) are the bonds that directly dictate mortgage rate movement.  When they're stronger/higher, it implies downward pressure on rates and vice… Read more

Bonds drifted steadily higher in yield during the overnight session with most of the weakness seen after European markets opened. The net effect was roughly 4bp increase in 10yr yields and an eighth of a point of weakness in MBS.  ADP data did no harm at 8:15am, but bonds stayed… Read more

My cat Myrtle never had to worry too much about things like… money. Elon Musk, however, can’t seem to catch a break and his $56 billion (yes, with a “b”) pay package didn’t fly. Attorney Brian Levy seems to have trouble taking the new Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E.) to… Read more

Friendly Fed Comments No Match For The Range The day began with a bond rally courtesy of geopolitical headlines (martial law declared in South Korea). Traders were done reacting to the news by 9am and yields were heading back up after that with a 10am push from stronger JOLTS data…. Read more

The bond market is the primary driver of mortgage rate movement and normally, "weakness" equates to higher rates.  Bonds are slightly weaker today compared to yesterday afternoon, but mortgage rates nonetheless managed to move lower.  What gives? Timing is partly to blame.  Bonds may be weaker than yesterday afternoon, but… Read more

Tis the season to have some fun, right? How about we start with this interesting musical duo? While the CFPB’s proposal addressing the selling of data has garnered some attention, with the Winter Solstice less than three weeks away and it isn’t exactly the season when home buying picks up…. Read more

Of all of the motivations in all the markets, this one had to walk into ours.  Or perhaps it rolled in on tank tracks.  Just over an hour ago, South Korea's president declared martial law.  If you don't follow Korean politics, yes, this is a head scratcher.  Upon verifying the… Read more

Bonds Hold Vast Majority of Last Week's Gains The most significant thing that happened as the market returned to the office from Thanksgiving weekend is that bonds were able to hold a vasty majority of last week's gains.  That wasn't immediately apparent if you were focusing on day-over-day losses, but… Read more

Mortgage rates remain elevated relative to the levels seen in September and early October, but they've definitely moved down a bit from their recent highs.  Thanksgiving week saw the lowest daily average rate in exactly a month, but there's never a guarantee the rate market will look the same on… Read more

I recall Zillow doing a study on the color of the front door impacting sales price. What does $22.5 million get you in Charleston, SC, especially if the place is owned by Trump’s nominee for the Secretary of Treasury? “Scott Bessent and his husband bought the historic mansion in 2016… Read more