Bonds Rally on Month-End Trading and Friendly Inflation Data Bonds began the day in unchanged territory and made cautious gains after reasonably friendly inflation data.  PCE was a bigger factor than the Consumer Sentiment inflation expectations, but both contributed.  Given our position on the calendar, we should also consider the… Read more

Today brings two new updates on inflation.  Core PCE inflation came in at 4.6 vs 4.7% forecasts, down from a 4.7% level previously.  This isn't nearly as big of a market mover as the CPI data out 2 weeks ago, but a big deviation could nonetheless have an impact.  In… Read more

“My landlord told me that she would like to have a chat with me about the house's sky-high heating bills this winter. I told her, ‘Sure thing, whenever you want. My door is always open.’” A key selling point for originators, in talking to potential clients on the fence about… Read more

This week's theme has undoubtedly been the extreme absence of volatility in the rate market.  Whether we're looking at mortgage rates themselves or a broader rate benchmark such as 10yr Treasury yields, both are right in line with Monday afternoon's latest levels. What's up with that? The bond market (which… Read more

Uncanny Calm Unlikely to Last For the third straight day, the bond market traded in a range that was significantly more narrow than almost any other day in more than a month.  By the time we consider the overall range of the past 3 days, there aren't many comparable examples. … Read more

Volume and volatility have rapidly died down over the past 3 days as the market settles into a waiting game.  What are we waiting for?  Successive days without bank drama, bigger ticket econ data, and any new evidence that helps confirm a Fed pivot. It's worth noting that these instances… Read more

It’s important to be stylish; just ask Pope Francis. (Page down once or twice to see the fake image. And we wish the 86-year-old a speedy recovery from a respiratory infection.) Being Pope has its pluses and minuses, from an occupational perspective, but, returning to mortgage banking, the next time… Read more

For the second day in a row, mortgage rates didn't move nearly as much as they have been moving on any given day during the past 3 weeks.  This is a reflection of calmer trading in the underlying bond market which is, in turn, a reflection of a lower volume… Read more

Another Boring (But Resilient) Day After the past few weeks, boring trading days aren't necessarily unwelcome.  Their only real downside is that there's not much to say about them.  Bonds are waiting for three things: more banking drama (or the progressive absence thereof), economic reports that flesh out the inflation… Read more

January was a refreshingly strong month for many economic reports, but especially for metrics relating to the housing and mortgage markets.  This wasn't too hard to reconcile with December and January having much lower mortgage rates, on average than October and November.   There's also a point at which housing market… Read more

In the wake of bank failures earlier in the month, stock prices and bond yields had been highly correlated.  This is a more normal trading pattern for times when the market is trading "risk" as opposed to "Fed accommodation."  This week has marked the biggest departure from that risk-on/off pattern–especially over… Read more

Two hydrogen atoms meet. One says, “I've lost my electron.” The other asks, “Are you sure?” The first replies, “Yes, I'm positive.” (Yes, its cutting-edge humor like this that keeps you coming back.) Do positive thoughts matter? Houston’s Norina and Ramon Navarro think so. Thinking positive thoughts about the housing… Read more

Applications for both home purchases and refinancing rose for the fourth time during the week ended March 24. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of application volume, increased 2.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis and 3.0 percent unadjusted compared to the week ended… Read more

The week began with a noticeable uptick in mortgage rates relative to last week's lows.  Today's momentum continued in the same direction, but with less urgency.  The average lender moved up by 0.06% for a flawless conforming 30yr fixed scenario. Mortgage rates are driven by the constantly-changing prices of mortgage-backed… Read more

The Most Boring Trading Day in Weeks Bond market volatility exploded on March 10th after the failure of Silicon Valley Bank.  There hasn't really been a day since then that would qualify as "boring," but if we had to pick one, today stood out.  It had the narrowest trading range… Read more