Issuance Sets The Tone and Keeps Bonds Range-Bound Bonds have now spent more than 2 weeks locked inside a very narrow trading range.  As of yesterday, yields were trying to break through the floor in the morning before moving back into the range by the close.  Today continued the rebound… Read more
Published on: 2022-11-29
If you're just here for the conforming loan limit news, $726,200 is the number for 2023.   Does this mean no one can get a mortgage for more than $726,200?  No.  The conforming loan limit is the maximum amount that can be guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the government-sponsored… Read more
Published on: 2022-11-29
Corporate debt issuance is a net negative for bonds.  There was a lull in issuance heading into Thanksgiving.  With traders snapping out of holiday mode, it makes sense to see new issuance coming to market. It all seems so obvious in retrospect, but bonds apparently hadn't priced in enough of… Read more
Published on: 2022-11-29
Lenders and vendors alike are emerging from Thanksgiving and looking ahead to which day they have off for Christmas in the U.S., the 23rd or the 26th. An informal Chrisman poll shows the 26th, but there is definitely a noticeable percentage who are taking both days off. It is good… Read more
Published on: 2022-11-29
Excitement, volatility, non-stop action… concepts that have absolutely nothing to do with mortgage rate movement over the course of the past two weeks.  In fact, since rates plummeted in response to the November 10th CPI data, they've been as flat as we've seen in 2022. This is the goal for… Read more
Published on: 2022-11-28
Bonds were effectively closed for a 4-day weekend starting with Thanksgiving last Thursday.  True, Friday was technically open for half a day, but volume and participation were so light as to make any of the movement questionable.  This is typical of any Friday after Thanksgiving. The following Monday (or "today"… Read more
Published on: 2022-11-28
Why does opening every ironing board sound like you’re dipping a witch in scalding oil? Cutting costs can sound like that as well, and while we await the 2023 conforming loan limits tomorrow, and the industry grapples with massive credit reporting cost hikes, lenders are not the only ones taking… Read more
Published on: 2022-11-28
Putting out this daily commentary is like being in the army: I usually do more by 6AM than many people do during much of the day. The commentary is a little early this morning since I received an email on Thanksgiving from IsabelleDuvall@opale-voyages.fr that my U.S. Government social security account… Read more
Published on: 2022-11-25
MBS live will be operating in "holiday light" mode today.   The weekly newsletter is on holiday but will be back next week. Commentary and alerts will only be written in the event of extra large bond market movement.  How would that be defined?  It's fairly simple in this case: unless… Read more
Published on: 2022-11-25
Bond markets will be closed for Thanksgiving tomorrow.  That means mortgage lenders won't be publishing new rates.  While markets are technically open for a half day on Friday, it's just as well to consider it part of a 4-day weekend.  Many mortgage lenders simply offer the same rates seen on… Read more
Published on: 2022-11-23
Rates Recover Nicely After Fed Minutes Today was the only day of the holiday-shortened week with any meaningful economic data on the calendar.  It's debatable whether we should pay much attention to the intraday volatility considering the narrowness of the range and the impending holiday weekend.  The only abundantly clear… Read more
Published on: 2022-11-23
We'd be the first to advocate taking Thanksgiving week trading momentum with a grain of salt, so this morning's discussion is less about drawing connections to market movement and more about the general message in some of the econ data.  In this case, it just happens to advocate for the… Read more
Published on: 2022-11-23
Let me save you a web search tomorrow: 1-800-butterball. A web search turned up a misconception: It appears that robber Willie Horton, when he was asked why he robbed banks, never said, "That's where the money is." But banks are where the money is, and it is certainly catchy. You… Read more
Published on: 2022-11-23
Mortgage application volume increased for the second consecutive week as interest rates continued to decline. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of that volume, was 2.2 percent higher during the week ending November 18 than the prior week on a seasonally adjusted basis and… Read more
Published on: 2022-11-23
Rates are driven by bonds and mortgage rates are driven by mortgage-backed bonds.  These bonds trade in the open market all day every day.  Mortgage lenders set their rates based on the movement in those bonds. Thanksgiving week tends to sap a significant amount of participation from the bond market. … Read more
Published on: 2022-11-22
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