This morning I head to Chicago, IL, a state with 972 licensed mortgage banking companies. Illinois has had its share of severe storm damage (heck, in Sarasota we just had upwards of 10 inches of rain in about 12 hours), and may be joining the ranks of places in the… Read more
Published on: 2024-06-13
In a nutshell, this morning's economic data rapidly reversed the weakness seen after yesterday's Fed announcement, thus restoring the lowest yields achieved after yesterday's CPI data.  Today's core monthly PPI is probably the bigger consideration, coming in at 0.0 vs 0.3–a big beat to be sure.  Jobless Claims in the… Read more
Published on: 2024-06-13
Massive CPI Rally Cut in Half After Fed Announcement As discussed in the AM commentary, bonds rallied sharply after this morning's CPI data (unrounded core monthly inflation at .163% versus a 0.3% forecast).  Those gains held up uneventfully until the Fed festivities began.  The most significant item on the Fed… Read more
Published on: 2024-06-12
It was an incredibly high consequence day for the bond market and, thus, mortgage rates due to the confluence of two extremely important events. The first event was the monthly release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is one of the two economic reports with the far more power… Read more
Published on: 2024-06-12
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated. In recent months, there has been a lack of modest further progress toward the… Read more
Published on: 2024-06-12
Florida became a state in 1845. Sixteen years later, kites were used in the American Civil War to deliver letters, news, and newspapers. Now we have… the internet. Here in Sarasota, at the MBA Florida Conference, yesterday’s CFPB proposal turned heads. A “rule” would remove medical bills from most credit… Read more
Published on: 2024-06-12
There are so many line items in the CPI data that it would be hard to imagine a truly perfect report.  In today's case, one could still take exception to the persistent elevation of "shelter" component (still 0.4 vs 0.4 last month), or to the fact that shelter is mysteriously… Read more
Published on: 2024-06-12
Mortgage application activity recovered nicely last week from a downturn during the previous holiday-shortened week, helped by a temporary drop in interest rates. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage application volume, increased 15.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis and was 26.0… Read more
Published on: 2024-06-12
Treasury Auction Helps Bonds Hold The Range If yesterday was a placeholder ahead of bigger ticket events, and if those bigger ticket events arrive on Wednesday, then Tuesday couldn't possibly be anything other than a placeholder as well.  That said, it was a more interesting placeholder with some friendly volatility… Read more
Published on: 2024-06-11
Today's mortgage rates were fairly close to yesterday's at the average lender for the 3rd business day in a row.  Friday was the last day with any substantial movement when rates spiked following the upbeat jobs report.  Since then, the average lender has only moved by 0.01% on each of… Read more
Published on: 2024-06-11
I head to Sarasota, Florida this morning, not to look for Florida Man, but for the MBA Florida Conference. A big topic will be homeowner’s insurance. What do Allstate, Liberty Mutual, State Farm, USAA, and Travelers have in common? They were singled out for being good insurance companies in the… Read more
Published on: 2024-06-11
Not every day is destined to be significant (or even interesting) for the bond market.  Depending on the outcome of today's only relevant calendar event–this afternoon's 10yr Treasury auction–today may be just such a 'placeholder.'  But what it lacks in terms of excitement, it makes up for in terms of… Read more
Published on: 2024-06-11
Straightforward Session as Traders Wait For More Monday ended up being rather uneventful for the bond despite its role as the lead-off hitter for an all-star line-up.  There were no significant economic reports on tap, but the 3yr Treasury auction managed to come in weak enough to prompt a bit… Read more
Published on: 2024-06-10
There's been a noticeable uptick in mortgage rate volatility over the past two weeks with a quick spike at the end of May, a nice drop in early June and then another spike last Friday following the jobs report.  Of course everything's relative, so in objective terms, it was roughly… Read more
Published on: 2024-06-10
“It's half the price of living at home!” Meet the people swapping dry land for a perpetual cruise. Meanwhile, back in the real world, residential loan originators are spending their days helping existing borrowers with their 3 percent 30-year fixed rate loans know when a cash-out refi makes financial sense…. Read more
Published on: 2024-06-10
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