As we noted last week, the timing of the improvements in mortgage rates meant that the previous survey of mortgage applications from the MBA was unable to capture what would likely prove to be a fairly big uptick in refinance demand.  This week's data confirmed it as the refi index... Read more

As is the case almost every week of the year, the Mortgage Bankers Association released its weekly mortgage app survey this week, showing the changes in purchase and refinance applications. We can skip right past any discussion or analysis of the purchase application index as it was almost identical to... Read more

The Census Bureau released new home sales data for January this week, and the annual pace was a seemingly significant 10.5% lower than last month's pace.  But before you devote even one extra BPM of your heart rate to the news, please look at a longer-term chart of the data... Read more

The massive spike and subsequent correction in home price appreciation (mid-2020 through early 2023) generated lots of opinions and concerns about the fate of the housing market. Early on, the fear was that prices were rising too high, too quickly. By mid-2022, the fear was that home prices were en... Read more

The National Association of Realtors released its Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) today, which measures home purchase contracts that have been signed, but not yet closed. The index typically correlates with existing home sales in the following month. While January's contract signings were only down 4.6% versus December, that was... Read more

Per the latest release from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), both refinance and purchase indices decreased this week. In terms of the change from the previous week, it was the biggest drop so far this year, but not remotely as big as last week of 2024.  Here is the refi... Read more

The Census Bureau released its New Residential Construction report this week, frequently referred to by its principal component "housing starts" (a term for the start of the first phase of new home construction). In addition to housing starts, the data also logs building permits as well as completions.  There's not... Read more

The National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) along with Wells Fargo released the monthly builder confidence index this week, and it came out much weaker than expected. With tariff and immigration news rapidly evolving, it's tempting to conclude that any major changes in homebuilder sentiment would be directly related.  For instance,... Read more

In this week's update on mortgage applications from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), purchases continued a modest retreat but refinance demand improved for the 2nd week in a row. This was just barely enough for the Refi index to hit the highest levels since October 2024. The uptick makes sense... Read more

There are two main styles of measurement when it comes to keeping track of mortgage rates: daily and weekly.  Sometimes, the differences in methodologies mean that two reputable sources can convey seemingly incongruent conclusions.  Other times, both the granular and general data agree.  This is one of those times. Whether... Read more

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) released its Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) for December this morning.  Pending sales measures the number signed purchase contracts for existing homes. As such, the index is a good early indicator for Existing Home Sales in the coming month. Pending sales dropped 5.5% from... Read more

Both S&P Case-Shiller and the FHFA released national home price indices this morning. In both cases, November's prices were slightly higher than expected.  For the Case Shiller data, this meant that prices declined less than expected. Unlike FHFA prices, Case Shiller is NOT seasonally adjusted--something that is immediately apparent when... Read more

It's no mystery that 2024 hasn't been a stellar year for home sales and many other housing metrics. Today's release of December's Existing Home Sales from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) confirmed that.   Bad news first: with December in the books, 2024 goes down as the worst year for... Read more

The Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) weekly mortgage application survey showed a modest decrease in refinance applications and an even more modest increase in purchase applications. At these levels of movement, it's just as fair to say that applications generally held steady. That's a good thing for purchases considering last week... Read more

While it would be technically accurate to point out a slight increase in January's homebuilder confidence (officially the National Association of Homebuilders Housing Market Index or HMI ), the type of movement we've seen in the past 2 years is better characterized as "incidental" in the bigger picture. As with... Read more