Eerily Calm and Strong For 2nd Straight Day After being heavily conditioned to expect elevated volatility with unpredictable timing, the past two trading sessions have been tremendous departures from the norm. Both days featured linear, reasonably big  improvements without any singular flashpoints that deserve any more credit than a general... Read more

What if your client called the CFPB about a servicing issue, or any issue, and no one answered? Things are changing, but for a thorough write up on the current situation, check out Debra Gaveglio & Donna Schmidt’s “Harmonizing Regulatory Compliance and Industry Perspectives: Leveraging Consumer Protection and Mortgage Servicing... Read more

Today's only scheduled economic report is Consumer Sentiment. Nonetheless, we would classify today as being "data free" because this is simply the final reading of the preliminary release 2 weeks ago.  It's the preliminary release that tends to move markets. Case in point, there was no reaction to this morning's... Read more

Solid Bond Rally For Debatable Reasons Bonds improved moderately well overnight and added to those gains steadily during the domestic session.  Ask 10 traders why and you might not get 10 different answers, but it would be at least 5. Improvement in the tariff outlook is a common refrain, but... Read more

What's "normal" for the bond market? That depends how far back you want to look.  Starting in late February, we had about a month of mostly sideways movement in a relatively narrow range as we waited for clarity on new fiscal policies and economic data. The tariff roll-out shook things... Read more

“I hate it when I see an old person and then realize we went to high school together.” Nothing lasts forever, not top lenders or even computer companies. We may reach the point where only old people remember Tandem Computers, Commodore Business Machines, or Fairchild Semiconductor, all thought to be... Read more

So you want to buy a house but already own. These are your options. Many current homeowners would like to sell their home and trade up or down but aren’t sure how in this competitive Real Estate market. If you’re not feeling stuck because of a 2% pandemic era interest... Read more

Bonds Lose Almost All The Gains After Inflation Warnings in The Data Bonds started out sharply stronger today after Trump walked back previous comments on Fed Chair Powell. Headlines regarding lower tariffs for China also helped, but they helped stocks more. The good times began unravelling with the 9:45am S&P... Read more

“I won a million dollars and donated a quarter of it to charity! I now have $999999.75 left.” Money can be funny… or not. In the past, a “flight to quality” or “flight to safety” didn’t involve feckless investors searching for a place to park their money when there was... Read more

Two factors had been contributing more than others to drive bond yields higher as of yesterday.  The broader, ongoing factor is/was the tariff/trade stand-off with China. Whether approached through the lens of inflation or decreased foreign appetite for USD assets (a byproduct of decreased consumption of foreign imports), excessive tariffs... Read more

Broadly Sideways Despite Intraday Volatility Shorter term bonds lost ground today while longer term bonds and MBS managed a modest victory. While this isn't really a victory considering the mixed performance, it was better than a sharp stick in the eye.  Moreover, MBS were able to outperform--something that is not at... Read more

“My boss pulled up in his brand-new BMW today and I couldn’t help but admire it. “Nice car,” I said as he got out. “Well,” he said, noticing my admiring looks, “Work hard, put the hours in, and I’ll have an even better one next year.” A relationship with one’s... Read more

If there was an overriding theme last week, it was that the absence of new tariff drama helped the bond market recover some of the previous week's weakness. While it wasn't exactly tariff drama, yesterday's "Trump vs Powell" headlines served a similar purpose in that they spooked markets and caused... Read more

Unfortunate Market Movement For Unfortunate Reasons Global financial markets partook in a slow motion train wreck on Monday as investors shunned USD-denominated assets and the dollar itself in response to Trump's vocal criticism of Fed Chair Powell.  The criticism itself wouldn't be too tough to deal with, but the prospect... Read more

In the 1980s I fell off my bike and hurt my knee. I'm telling you this now because we didn't have social media then. It doesn’t take social media to know that the S&P 500 is down 10 percent for the year, but fortunately “the stock market is not the... Read more