Treasury Auction Relief Rally and Month-End Support With Thursday being a half day before a 3.5 day weekend, it's entirely reasonable to suspect month-end trading helped the bond market today.  There's never a great way to know if it will help or hurt, but it's a common hindsight conclusion when... Read more
Published on: 2024-03-27
Could anything be better than Krispy Kreme coming to McDonalds! Yes! The new HMDA data is here! (More of a more serious note below.) Whether donuts or mortgages, a company can’t manufacture them without planning. Searching for one perfect process for your lending operation? It doesn’t exist. In STRATMOR Group’s... Read more
Published on: 2024-03-27
There are no significant economic data on tap today.  The only notable event is the 7yr Treasury auction (the last of the week) and it's a bit of a stretch to refer to a 7yr auction as "notable."  Far more interesting were the overnight developments in Japan, resulting in a... Read more
Published on: 2024-03-27
Mixed Performance. Data Hurt. Auction Helped. Little Changed In the bigger picture, bonds found resistance before 10yr yields managed to break below 4.19, but remained well under the 4.32% ceiling after yesterday's weakness.  Today began slightly stronger, but shifted weaker after the Durable Goods data.  The home team rallied after... Read more
Published on: 2024-03-26
Welcome to day 4 of our unofficial 9 day weekend with limited data and volatility ahead of an actual 3.5 day weekend.  Is data truly limited if we have Durable Goods?  Perhaps not entirely...  There was a small but noticeable reaction this morning to the stronger result (1.4 vs 1.1).  But... Read more
Published on: 2024-03-26
As conjecture swirls about the economic impact of the collapse of the bridge in Baltimore, did you ever notice that when you put the two words "The" and "IRS" together it spells "Theirs"? Taxes are something we all deal with, and here in Louisville, KY, at the TMC event, one... Read more
Published on: 2024-03-26
Weaker Start, But MBS Outperform The week got off to a weaker start with most of the losses seen during the overnight session, but gradual ongoing selling during domestic hours.  There were no overt market movers behind the weakness unless we want to give credit to anxiety over the Treasury... Read more
Published on: 2024-03-25
Here in Louisville, KY, at the TMC event, this one is making the rounds. “What does a real estate agent’s wife say if she can’t sleep? ‘Honey, tell me about your day at work.’” Inventory continues to be low. While lenders everywhere seem concerned about the implications of the proposed... Read more
Published on: 2024-03-25
Monday marks the start of a holiday-shortened week (early close on Thursday and fully closed on Friday) and the beginning of a week that will conclude with month/quarter end trading.  This doesn't guarantee any specific outcome for the bond market, but it does increase the odds of random volatility unrelated... Read more
Published on: 2024-03-25
9 Day Weekend For The Bond Market While it's not technically a 9 day weekend for the bond market, it might as well be.  It's not that the upcoming week is inconsequential in terms of economic data and events, just that the data isn't on a high enough tier to... Read more
Published on: 2024-03-22
In the current regime of bond market movement, traders have been running from one side of the field to the other in an attempt to get in on the action surrounding inflation data and labor market data.  There hasn't been much in between apart from Fed communications that tend to... Read more
Published on: 2024-03-22
I saw a sign recently: “Psychic Fair Cancelled Due to Unforeseen Circumstances.” No one can see into the future, or can read minds, and communication is always a good thing. But if I had to predict something, mortgage-related fees (what is disclosed, and how, at closing) will be something in... Read more
Published on: 2024-03-22
Econ Data Keeps Bonds in Check Looking solely at the end of day trading levels in the bond market, we could conclude that we are once again deprived of any meaningful motivations for momentum.  That's partially true in the sense that today's events were not "top tier."  Nonetheless, we can... Read more
Published on: 2024-03-21
The global trading community digested yesterday's Fed events in a relatively constructive way overnight.  Combined with lackluster manufacturing PMIs in Europe, it was enough for a moderate extension of yesterday's rally.  The morning trading hours in the U.S. have pushed back in the other direction, with the balance of economic data... Read more
Published on: 2024-03-21
“90 percent of bald people still own a comb; they just can't part with it.” Many companies that retained servicing in 2020 and 2021, complete with low interest rates and borrowers with large amounts of equity & abilities to repay, have made the decision to part with that servicing. Packages... Read more
Published on: 2024-03-21
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