Pleasant PPI Paradox Leaves This Week's Big Victory in Focus The Producer Price Index (PPI) introduced a brief but disconcerting threat to this week's relative level of triumph (courtesy of yesterday's CPI) by suggesting a big, unexpected surge in core inflation at the wholesale level.  Bonds initially panicked, but quickly... Read more
Published on: 2024-07-12
The Producer Price Index (PPI) is certainly not in the same league as CPI when it comes to bond market impact, but there have been several notable reactions in the past year.  It was a concern, then, to see core PPI come in 0.2 higher than expected and for last... Read more
Published on: 2024-07-12
“I’m sorry, but you can’t always be ‘experiencing a higher volume of calls than average.’ That’s not how averages work.” The “average” person has a student loan, or a car loan, or credit card debt, or all three. Throw in mortgage interest rates around 7 percent, homeowner’s insurance of possibly... Read more
Published on: 2024-07-12
Very Restrained Bond Rally Considering The Data's Implications Today's CPI data was hotly anticipated, to say the least, and it did a borderline heroic job of advocating for a huge drop in rates.  Not only did the core M/M number drop to an unrounded 0.065 (implies core annual inflation UNDER... Read more
Published on: 2024-07-11
I have good news and bad news, which do you normally prefer receiving first? Today (7/11) is Slurpee Day at 7-Eleven (good news), where Citigroup executives might want to head to cheer themselves up after the Federal Reserve Board on Wednesday fined Citigroup $60.6 million (bad news, at least for... Read more
Published on: 2024-07-11
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the most important economic report for the bond market these days.  The most important line item in that report is month over month core CPI, which excludes food and energy.  That number was forecast to hit 0.2% but instead came in at 0.1, rounded... Read more
Published on: 2024-07-11
No New Inspiration Ahead of Thursday's CPI We've officially run out of ways to characterize the boring, sideways grind in the bond market that's been intact since last Friday afternoon.  One would think that with Fed Chair testimony and a Treasury auction cycle that we'd at least some moderate volatility,... Read more
Published on: 2024-07-10
“The only time I get asked for sex is on application forms.” Ba-dum-ching! Speaking of applications, most lenders will agree that the loan officer should be the first point of contact for a home buyer, not the real estate agent. But over the years real estate agents have done a... Read more
Published on: 2024-07-10
The most recent sideways slide began just before noon last Friday.  Bonds had rallied in response to the jobs report with 10's closing at 4.29%.  Since then, there hasn't been more than 4bps of movement in either direction, and the range has been even narrower 95% of the time.  Part... Read more
Published on: 2024-07-10
MBS Outperform. Powell Punts. Waiting on CPI Bonds showed slightly more notable signs of life this morning when compared to yesterday, but yesterday was all but dead.  The volatility surrounded Fed Chair Powell's congressional testimony but had more to do with what didn't say as opposed to what he said. ... Read more
Published on: 2024-07-09
“Your call is important to us. Please stay on the line until it is no longer important to you.” To state the obvious, serving customers can make or break a company. Are you ever frustrated when the person ahead of you in the store is fumbling around to find their... Read more
Published on: 2024-07-09
The new week is one day less new today, but no less sideways so far.  Yields rose microscopically in the overnight session, but even that is a generous assessment considering the range in the 10yr was less than 3bps.  Domestic hours are off to a sleepy start with yields in an... Read more
Published on: 2024-07-09
Uneventful Monday Leaves Bonds Little Changed It was a quintessential summertime Monday to start the new week.  Trading volumes were exceptionally light and volatility wasn't far behind.  Most of the movement happened right at the 8:20am CME open with Treasuries quickly repairing some incidental overnight damage.  The 9:30am NYSE open... Read more
Published on: 2024-07-08
During a recent password audit, it was found that a blonde was using the following password: "MickeyMinniePlutoHueyLouieDeweyDonaldGoofySacramento". When asked why such a long password, she said she was told that it had to be at least 8 characters long and include at least one capital. What’s today? It’s “change every... Read more
Published on: 2024-07-08
Bonds are finding their range in a perfectly inoffensive way to begin the new week.  That's a victory considering a bit of weakness is never a surprise at the start of Treasury auction weeks, but then again, current trading levels represent a modest amount of weakness versus the recent yield... Read more
Published on: 2024-07-08
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