When I win the lottery, I am going to buy one of these to heat my blankets at home. Of course, that would mean that I will have to start playing the lottery, so until then I’ll just have to rely on my cat Myrtle to prep things. Just because... Read more
Published on: 2024-04-12
Bonds began the overnight session in modestly stronger territory but the gains started adding up in earnest after European markets opened for the day.  A slew of respectable inflation readings and another survey on inflation trajectory helped juice European bonds and US Treasuries came along for the ride.  Then in... Read more
Published on: 2024-04-12
About as Uneventful as it Could Have Been Any time we have a huge day of movement, regardless of the reason, the odds of bigger movement increase for the following days.  Today was especially tense because there was another inflation report that stood the chance to add insult to yesterday's... Read more
Published on: 2024-04-11
After a day like Wednesday (one of the top 20 weakest bond market days of the past few decades), one of the top concerns is that the following day will see follow-through selling.  Indeed, there are many examples of such days catalyzing a new trend for several weeks.  Heavy selling... Read more
Published on: 2024-04-11
The next time you complain about your job, just be thankful you’re not working at Cinnabon. (Excuse the language.) Did you know that tomorrow is “Take your underwriter to work day”? Okay, I just made that up. If life could be so simple and everything would go smoothly. Instead, we... Read more
Published on: 2024-04-11
A Really Bad Day For The Bond Market To reiterate the point made in today's morning commentary, there was a mismatch between the size of the beat in the core inflation data (0.4 vs 0.3) and the size of the move in the bond market.  This wasn't a glaringly huge... Read more
Published on: 2024-04-10
Remember when lenders were fretting about Amazon rolling out a major home loan program? The new acronym that the mortgage industry was about to start using was “WACD” (What Amazon Can’t Do). We reminded ourselves that Amazon couldn’t do is to deliver high value and personalized service and build relationships... Read more
Published on: 2024-04-10
When it comes to big ticket economic events, the average anticipatory headline tends to be a bit more dramatic than the actual outcome.  It's our way of preparing the audience for what's possible even though reality only occasionally explores the depths of those possibilities.  Then there are days like today... Read more
Published on: 2024-04-10
Nice Tuesday For Bonds, But It's All About Wednesday Tuesday turned out to be great for bonds with MBS up nearly a quarter of a point for most of the day and 10yr yields ultimately dropping into the 4.35's by the final hour of trading.  As nice as it is... Read more
Published on: 2024-04-09
Here in the Hill Country near Austin, Texas, there’s an active market of sellers and buyers of real estate. It is a safe bet that most use agents; around 90 percent of buyers use them, and Clever released data on average real estate commission rates in the U.S. as they... Read more
Published on: 2024-04-09
The overnight session was generally a mirror image of yesterday's with 10yr yields moving several bps lower in a linear, steady trend.  Unlike yesterday, 8am didn't bring an obvious reversal.   While this stronger start is "nice," it's meaningless in the bigger picture.  Apart from a truly astonishing surprise, nothing about... Read more
Published on: 2024-04-09
Uneventful, Sideways Day After Initial Losses Today had the dubious distinction of seeing the highest yields in more than 4 months while also being uneventful and largely sideways in terms of bond market momentum.  The steeper losses were limited to the overnight session with 8am bringing a quick but shallow... Read more
Published on: 2024-04-08
Bonds began the new week with follow-through selling overseas.  Losses were steady and linear in both Asia and Europe.  It's tempting to chalk up some of the weakness to a big beat in German industrial production data, but Treasury yields were already up to 4.44% by the time the data... Read more
Published on: 2024-04-08
“A fine is a tax for doing wrong. A tax is a fine for doing well.” April 15th is in a week, the traditional date when taxes are due. Time flies. Do you realize that we have seven more months until the election? Seven more months of headlines and gaffes,... Read more
Published on: 2024-04-08
Bond Market Resilience Suggests More Focus on CPI Up until the 3pm CME close, the bond market was having a surprisingly resilient day relative to the market moving data.  When NFP beats forecasts by 100k (today: 303k vs 200k f'cast), we tend to see big losses.  It was no surprise... Read more
Published on: 2024-04-05
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