As President Jimmy Carter celebrated his 99th birthday seven months into hospice, welcome to the 4th quarter! (Will lenders experience any “Q-4-ia”? Say out loud.) Let’s talk U.S. lists! California, Indiana, Michigan, Texas, and Virginia are top five in pumpkin growing. The National Association of Realtors, U.S. Chamber of Commerce,... Read more

Nearly 2 weeks ago, the Fed announcement (specifically, the economic projections and dot plot) kicked off a repricing trend in the bond market otherwise known as "higher for longer."  The net effect had been excess upward pressure on longer-term yields and a modest decline in shorter-term yields. Bonds managed to... Read more

Bonds Almost Hold Onto Gains Ahead of Shutdown Uncertainty Bonds improved moderately overnight, adding onto what was already a fairly substantial recovery yesterday.  The morning's PCE data was slightly lower than expected, but bonds didn't seem unequivocally happy about that.  There was a modest extension of the rally and then... Read more

The trading day began on a fairly positive note with a strong hand-off from Europe and reasonably friendly inflation data at 8:30am.  After a few moments of indecision, bonds rallied modestly on the data, but have been giving back the gains as we head into the PM hours.  The rest... Read more

Shutdown or no shutdown, the National Park Service’s Fat Bear Week is approaching, focused on how these behemoths tip the scale. Here’s your tip of the day: Having books in your Zoom background makes you seem more trustworthy. What if one of them is “The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Mortgages”?... Read more

Bonds Bounce Despite Stronger Data Bonds lost ground overnight and logically added to the losses after the morning's Jobless Claims data.  Dovish comments from Fed's Goolsbee helped push back in the other direction and month-end tradeflows added to gains in the afternoon.  All told, it was a token correction much... Read more

Bonds lost ground modestly overnight.  Contrast that to the past few trading sessions that have seen gains in Europe followed by selling in the US.  Then at the start of the domestic session, economic data added to the weakness, but not before a quick, paradoxical blip into stronger territory.  This... Read more

Seen on someone’s laptop here in Phoenix: “If Pete Davidson can date a Kardashian, you can be a homeowner.” From a business viewpoint, if you think mortgages are bad, try NFTs. I don’t know what I was thinking, sinking my entire 401(k) into that sector a few years ago. My... Read more

What is "Repricing" in The Broader Context, And How is it Moving Markets? We've been here before and we'll be here again, but each time feels like a surprising new twist on what we think we know about bond market motivations.  The key word is "repricing," and we're not talking... Read more

Normally, when the bond market is in a pervasive selling trend, we'll see a day or two of reprieve amidst the carnage.  Frequently, such days are friendly enough to lead to questions about whether they're evidence of a bounce.  At the very least, when trading levels are much stronger on the morning... Read more

Today I head to Phoenix area for the AzAMP annual conference, and am reminded that, “Change is inevitable, except from a vending machine.” The mortgage industry is constantly changing, although Freddie and Fannie have been a somewhat stabilizing influence. But explaining to someone not in the mortgage business what they,... Read more

Stronger Start, Weaker Finish, No Real Reason Bonds improved in the overnight session, but reversed course the moment that the US bond market hit the 8:20am CME open.  The selling wasn't intense, but it was consistent from that point on.  10yr yields ultimate set new long term highs just over... Read more

The seemingly never-ending sea of red continues.  And for good measure, this one began with a bit of hope in the form of an overnight rally that got 10yr yields back below 4.50%. Not one moment after the official end of the overnight session, domestic traders started selling, pausing only... Read more

As if lenders and vendors don’t have enough other stuff to worry about, the budgetary standoff in the U.S. doesn't look like it will abate soon, raising the likelihood of the first government shutdown since 2019. Current funding for federal operations will end on October 1 unless a deal is... Read more

Sell Now and Wait For Something to Convince You to Buy Bonds began the week with another move to long-term yield highs.  There was a wave of selling in the overnight session led by Europe and another when domestic traders ramped up for the day.  Neither were unequivocally the product... Read more