Bonds Rally on Month-End Trading and Friendly Inflation Data Bonds began the day in unchanged territory and made cautious gains after reasonably friendly inflation data.  PCE was a bigger factor than the Consumer Sentiment inflation expectations, but both contributed.  Given our position on the calendar, we should also consider the... Read more

Today brings two new updates on inflation.  Core PCE inflation came in at 4.6 vs 4.7% forecasts, down from a 4.7% level previously.  This isn't nearly as big of a market mover as the CPI data out 2 weeks ago, but a big deviation could nonetheless have an impact.  In... Read more

“My landlord told me that she would like to have a chat with me about the house's sky-high heating bills this winter. I told her, ‘Sure thing, whenever you want. My door is always open.’” A key selling point for originators, in talking to potential clients on the fence about... Read more

Uncanny Calm Unlikely to Last For the third straight day, the bond market traded in a range that was significantly more narrow than almost any other day in more than a month.  By the time we consider the overall range of the past 3 days, there aren't many comparable examples. ... Read more

Volume and volatility have rapidly died down over the past 3 days as the market settles into a waiting game.  What are we waiting for?  Successive days without bank drama, bigger ticket econ data, and any new evidence that helps confirm a Fed pivot. It's worth noting that these instances... Read more

It’s important to be stylish; just ask Pope Francis. (Page down once or twice to see the fake image. And we wish the 86-year-old a speedy recovery from a respiratory infection.) Being Pope has its pluses and minuses, from an occupational perspective, but, returning to mortgage banking, the next time... Read more

Another Boring (But Resilient) Day After the past few weeks, boring trading days aren't necessarily unwelcome.  Their only real downside is that there's not much to say about them.  Bonds are waiting for three things: more banking drama (or the progressive absence thereof), economic reports that flesh out the inflation... Read more

In the wake of bank failures earlier in the month, stock prices and bond yields had been highly correlated.  This is a more normal trading pattern for times when the market is trading "risk" as opposed to "Fed accommodation."  This week has marked the biggest departure from that risk-on/off pattern--especially over... Read more

Two hydrogen atoms meet. One says, “I've lost my electron.” The other asks, “Are you sure?” The first replies, “Yes, I'm positive.” (Yes, its cutting-edge humor like this that keeps you coming back.) Do positive thoughts matter? Houston’s Norina and Ramon Navarro think so. Thinking positive thoughts about the housing... Read more

The Most Boring Trading Day in Weeks Bond market volatility exploded on March 10th after the failure of Silicon Valley Bank.  There hasn't really been a day since then that would qualify as "boring," but if we had to pick one, today stood out.  It had the narrowest trading range... Read more

The week began with a somewhat sharp sell-off.  This followed the steady selling pressure in bonds seen last Friday (albeit after the lowest opening yields in more than 5 months).  With bank failures being the key reason for those low yields and a distinct absence of new bank failure in recent days,... Read more

John F. Kennedy has been gone nearly 60 years, and Jackie Kennedy (Onassis) nearly 30, but the couple still resonates with people. The first home that they owned as a married couple is for sale in Washington DC. If you’re ever in a guessing game about the most expensive places... Read more

Bonds Buyers Back Off as Banks Bounce Bank health continues to dominate the news cycle with investors buying bonds when things look shaky and selling when days go by without new drama.  In addition to the ticking clock, reassuring headlines can also take a toll on bonds.  That happened overnight as First... Read more

“Once you lick the frosting off of a cupcake, it becomes a muffin. And muffins are healthy. You’re welcome.” Adding another expense to a transaction is certainly not welcome, yet that’s exactly what was voted into effect by residents of Los Angeles County in November. When you sell a house,... Read more

Bond yields began rising at 2am this morning when news broke regarding the acquisition of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB).  First Citizens bank will acquire nearly $130bn in deposits and loans.  In addition, there was no new drama in the European banking sector overnight.  Stocks and bonds are doing what they... Read more