Worst is Over. Now What? Good things happened in the bond market on Tuesday.  There was a bit of a scare in the AM hours as a relatively flat overnight performance gave way to some early weakness, but buyers showed up at the 4.05% technical level in 10yr yields (a... Read more

Here in Philadelphia and many other parts of the nation, the weather is autumnal. But that doesn’t matter for the thousands upon thousands of uninsured houses hit by Hurricane Helene, or those in Milton’s path in Florida. Cities like Asheville, NC, which are receiving the lion’s share of publicity from... Read more

Friday's NFP gave the bond market a solid whack, sending yields quickly higher.  Momentum remained intact over the weekend and through Monday.  Overseas markets were more willing to try to push back in the overnight session on Tuesday morning, but a modest selling trend remains intact.  The good news is... Read more

Bonds Undergoing a Bit of a Reset 3 weeks ago, the Fed voted to cut rates by 0.50%.  Traders had rushed to get in position for that, so a small "reset" followed as the market waited for the most important vote.  The vote in question was on whether or not the... Read more

Yesterday I flew west to Philadelphia (“Philly”) to spend some time with the Spring EQ sales team. It is a well-known fact that the process of boarding a plane takes about twice as long as deplaning: predictably passengers take longer to find their seats and settle in versus grabbing their... Read more

Here's a repeat of the lock/float considerations posted on Friday after the jobs report: "Friday's strong jobs report and resulting bond market rout change the calculus for rate expectations until further notice. Traders now need new data to reinvigorate the case for an economy that's weakening enough to support the... Read more

Who Lied About Jobs Numbers? Unpleasant day for the bond market with jobs crushing forecasts and being revised higher for the past 2 months.  We knew it would be high stakes and the magnitude of the reaction makes good sense relative to the data.  But how do we reconcile this... Read more

As Maui grapples with rebuilding, and parts of the Southeast deal with continued rescue or recovery issues, where would our lives be without some levity? Rich Swerbinsky, Founder of Onward and Upward Consulting, has updated his “40 Greatest Names in the Mortgage Industry list.” (Contributions or comments should be addressed... Read more

It is a very simple day for the bond market.  There was a ton of anticipation for today's jobs report after the past two iterations raised concerns about flagging labor market conditions.  Indeed, the Fed's decision to cut by 0.50 vs 0.25 last month had much to do with the... Read more

ISM Makes For Negative NFP Lead-Off If the bond market has to digest an ISM Services report that is much stronger than expected, it would be best not to have it come out less than 24 hours before the big jobs report.  Otherwise, you get a day like today where... Read more

Tis the time of year when pumpkins have magically appeared in bins outside supermarkets and on porches. Which state grows the most? It’s hard to beat Illinois with its 18,000 acres of pumpkins. 2,100 miles away, in California (with roughly 900,000 acres of grapes), what happens when a family with... Read more

There are some labor market reports that cause some concern about a weaker job market.  And while Jobless Claims is often thought to be a leading indicator, it is not one of those reports.  Today's release is the latest example.  The 225k headline is a bit higher than the forecast... Read more

Wednesday's Market Movement Raises Stakes for Friday There are times when the bond market seems not to care too terribly much what the ADP Employment report is saying.  There are other times when ADP has a surprisingly big impact.  Relative to the size of today's beat, we arguably saw one... Read more

The Fed's been saying it for several months and the market has been trading it accordingly for just as long: the focus has clearly shifted away from inflation and toward the labor market.  The latest piece of evidence is this morning's ADP employment report.  Despite coming in only modestly higher... Read more

Whether it was Richey May’s lock picking kit, Maxwell’s milk frother, Total Expert’s socks, or Byte’s locally made sweet treats, there was plenty of vendor schwag in Las Vegas at the ACUMA event, just as there is at many conferences. (Thank you to Lisa B. for passing along this article... Read more