Wednesday's Consumer Price Index caused a brutally fast spike in mortgage rates.  It wasn't notable for taking us to exceptionally high levels (October 2023 was much higher), but it was one of the biggest single-day jumps.  Either way, it easily took the average lender back to highest levels since November... Read more
Published on: 2024-04-11
Mortgage rates surged at a pace seen only one other time since October 2022.  The average lender moved up by 0.28%, which is functionally equivalent to the 0.29% seen after the February 2nd jobs report.  In fact, today was arguably worse because the Feb 2nd example happened a day after... Read more
Published on: 2024-04-10
Mortgage rates roughly matched their highest levels in months yesterday, but managed to turn things around today.  One could argue that the broader bond market (which dictates rates) began to turn things yesterday morning and that the only reason rates moved higher was the overnight bond market movement.   So today... Read more
Published on: 2024-04-09
Mortgage rates moved up somewhat abruptly today as the bond market lost more ground over the weekend.  Rates are driven primarily by bonds, but mortgage lenders tend to only update rates once per day unless the bond market is moving very quickly. With that in mind, bonds were losing ground... Read more
Published on: 2024-04-08
Data dependent... That's a phrase that is all too prevalent in financial markets and among members of the Federal Reserve.  It refers to the fact that economic data will guide the future path of interest rate decisions.   While rates always depend on data, the data outlook isn't always as uncertain... Read more
Published on: 2024-04-05
Mortgage rates may have been able to claim some resilience over the past few days, but it hasn't been a great week in general.  The average lender jumped quickly over 7% for a top tier conventional 30yr fixed rate on Monday.  The next two days were much less interesting. Now... Read more
Published on: 2024-04-04
After starting the week with a sharp move higher, mortgage rates managed to avoid losing much ground yesterday.  This was only achieved with a recovery in the bond market that erased early morning losses (rates are based on bonds and when bonds improve, lenders can update mortgage rates during the... Read more
Published on: 2024-04-03
After starting the week with a fairly large jump, mortgage rates had a much calmer day on Tuesday.  This was made all the more impressive by the fact that the underlying bond market suggested another increase earlier this morning. To be fair, the average mortgage lender was definitely showing noticeably... Read more
Published on: 2024-04-02
March ended with a streak of some of the flattest day-over-day changes in mortgage rates on record.  It was all but certain that the new week/month would bring a change to that sideways trend, but the reality has immediate and abrupt. Right at the start of domestic trading hours, bonds... Read more
Published on: 2024-04-01
Unfortunately, we don't have a great way to measure all of the past precedents, but it's safe to say that the this was one of the least volatile weeks in the history of mortgage rates.  Our daily rate index never moved more than 0.01 and it remained in a 0.01... Read more
Published on: 2024-03-28
There are probably only a few 4-day streaks with effectively no movement in mortgage rates, and this is one of them.  After falling to 6.91% last Friday, the MND rate index hasn't moved more than 0.01%. Granted, some lenders have been higher or lower during that time, but they offset... Read more
Published on: 2024-03-27
After moving back under 7% last week (conventional, 30yr fixed, top tier scenario), mortgage rates have been increasingly unlikely to move.  Today was the 2nd day in a row with essentially no change for the average lender. Rates are driven by bonds and bonds are waiting on the most relevant... Read more
Published on: 2024-03-26
Mortgage rates enjoyed a decently strong week last week, with the average top tier conventional 30yr fixed rate moving down to 6.91% by Friday from 7.09% on the previous Friday.  To put today's "unchanged" headline in perspective, that same number is up to 6.92% this afternoon. To put all of... Read more
Published on: 2024-03-25
As the broader market continued rubbing its eyes in disbelief over the Fed's exceptionally calm attitude on inflation, bonds continued to improve today.  Stronger bonds mean lower rates.  The average mortgage lender was able to drop rates to the lowest levels in nearly 2 weeks--just a hair above March 11th... Read more
Published on: 2024-03-22
It's Thursday and thus time once again to check in with Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey versus reality.  To be fair, it's not that Freddie isn't participating in reality.  It's just not the same version of reality you might prefer if you are in need of more timely updates... Read more
Published on: 2024-03-21