We've talked a lot about why the Fed rate cut will have no additional positive impact on mortgage rates next week.  Everything the market can already reasonably foresee about what the Fed might do is already reflected in today's mortgage rates. In other words, much of the sharp mortgage rate... Read more

While it's true that there have only been 8 business days so far this month, it's also true that today is the only one of the 8 where mortgage rates haven't been lower than the previous day for the average lender.  That's the bad news. The good news is that... Read more

Mortgage rates moved lower again today despite a key inflation report coming in higher than expected.  This is counterintuitive for anyone who's been following rate movement closely over the past few years.   During that time, inflation reports have had a strong, direct connection to mortgage rate volatility with higher inflation... Read more

Mortgage rates are based on trading in the bond market and bonds consistently take cues from economic data.  Among the data, some reports are vastly more important than others--as we've seen after several recent examples of the jobs report. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is another extremely important report.  At... Read more

The average lender's top tier 30yr fixed rate fell to the lowest level since April 2023 last week. That's down more than 1.25% over the past 5 months.  During that time, economic data and the Fed's interpretation of the data have moved into better alignment with the idea of a... Read more

Mortgage rates have a long and storied history of making big moves on the day that the big monthly jobs report comes out.  In that regard, today was fairly normal.  Indeed, the jobs report came out and mortgage rates made their biggest move of the week, dropping to the lowest... Read more

Wouldn't it be nice if you could know what was going to happen with mortgage rates before it actually happened?  Since the dawn of time in financial markets, there's someone who's willing to make a seemingly compelling prediction about the future for every person who's willing to believe such things... Read more

Mortgage rates moved lower for the 2nd straight day on Wednesday with the average lender right in line with their lowest levels since August 5th.  In fact, most borrowers would see little--if any difference between today's loans quotes and those from August 5th.  As such, today's rates basically match the... Read more

You never know what you're going to get on the days surrounding a 3 day weekend for financial markets, and that's doubly true when it corresponds with the final/first trading day of the month.  Despite all of those potential curveballs, the bond market stayed calm enough for mortgage rates to... Read more

Day to day movement has been subdued in mortgage rates recently, and now the week over week movement is just as uneventful.  Friday's average top tier 30yr fixed rate almost perfectly matched last Friday's and it was identical to where we began the week.   Given the absence of any major... Read more

It continues to be the case that mortgage rates are moving in a very narrow range with minimal changes from day to day. For instance, in the past week, the average mortgage payment would not have changed by more than $2 a month on a $300k loan. That said, the... Read more

On Wednesday, the average mortgage lender was quoting top tier, conventional 30yr fixed rates at the 2nd lowest level in more than a year.  That's counterintuitive considering the modest losses in the bond market (weaker bonds = higher rates, all other things being equal). The explanation comes down to simple... Read more

Every year, the Federal Reserve (aka "the Fed") gathers in Jackson Hole, WY with a bevy of other central bankers and academics to discuss and comment on monetary policy in a setting that's slightly less formal than normal.  Despite the scenic backdrop, Jackson Hole speeches by the Fed Chair have... Read more

After moving lower for 4 straight days to hit the 3rd lowest levels in more than a year, mortgage rates bounced just a bit higher today.  This was the first day of the week with meaningful economic data and the bond market (which dictates rate movement) frequently takes cues from... Read more

Although the day to day changes in mortgage rates have been modest recently, the slow and steady improvement has brought the average top tier 30yr fixed rate back near the lowest levels in more than a year.  Apart from 2 days earlier this month, rates are as low as they've... Read more