Decent Recovery After Friday's PCE Numbers Clarify Thursday's PCE Numbers Thursday's quarterly PCE numbers were much higher than expected.  That meant an increased risk that Friday's monthly numbers would follow suit.  While today's PCE was higher than expected in places, the important month-over-month core PCE was in line with expectations... Read more

WARNING: once you get past the 1st paragraph here, things start to get a bit "mathy" and esoteric.  The takeaway is that there's an actual way to reconcile today's 0.3 vs 0.3 monthly core PCE result against yesterday's 3.7 vs 3.4 annual result.  Yesterday's GDP data included the Core PCE... Read more

There seems to be a bit of a baby boom going on out there. Prospective home buyers who need a place for a growing family quickly find out that residential lending isn’t without its share of tears. Next time you’re dealing with an upset borrower or loan officer, here’s something... Read more

Bonds Rattled By Surprisingly Big Beat in Spending Data Today's big surprise was the PCE price index component of Q1 GDP.  GDP itself was weaker than expected, but even that was explained away by components not related to private domestic consumption.  Focusing on the latter makes Q1 look just as... Read more

I travel a little bit, so it was with great interest that I read, “The Department of Transportation… will soon require airlines to quickly refund passengers if they cancel, delay, or make significant changes to flights.” “A book hit my head, and I have only my shelf to blame.” Odd... Read more

It's a bit of a tricky morning in the bond market when it comes to reconciling the data with the market movement.  At face value the headlines make a better case for lower rates with GDP at 1.6 vs 2.5, wholesale inventories missing big and Jobless Claims not too far... Read more

Uneventfully Weaker Regardless of Durable Goods Data Bonds were weaker in the overnight session on a combination of anxiety over potential sales of US Treasuries in Japan and European economic data.  The domestic session brought actual selling of US Treasuries in the form of the 5yr Treasury auction, but the... Read more

Sometimes you just have to “risk it for the biscuit.” Capital markets are, for the most part, a little more complicated than, say, a recipe for next level dark chocolate brownies with salted caramel. Occasionally the topic of LOs or brokers being able to lock a loan, any time, any... Read more

The bond market has been decidedly more sideways after hitting longer-term yield highs last Tuesday.  10yr Treasuries have been a relatively narrow range since then, mostly respecting a ceiling of 4.65 and a floor of 4.57.  The first two days of the week saw yields start near the ceiling and... Read more

Straightforward Gains After PMI Data Tuesday's session was infinitely more interesting than Monday's with the caveat being Monday was a total snooze-fest.  Bond market volumes were much closer to recent averages and there was even some logical, data-driven volatility.  As always, volatility can go both ways and today's went the right... Read more

Is it any surprise to see a strong reaction to economic data when the phrase "data dependent" has come to unequivocally rule all other approaches to understanding the interest rate outlook?  Yes, actually, it can sometimes still be a surprise because data dependency depends on the data being depended upon.... Read more

“The next time you dislike your life, remember it’s all about perspective. I know someone who reads 2-3 books a week, works out twice a day, has no financial worries, and has people who want to have sex with him all the time. Yet he constantly complains how much he... Read more

Boring Monday Keeps The Focus on Next Week Monday may as well have been a 3rd weekend day as far as the bond market is concerned.  While equities are preoccupied with earnings, bonds were trading at about HALF their normal clip based on the past 2 weeks of average volume. ... Read more

When I was a kid, whenever I would walk by a pay phone or newspaper vending machine, I’d check the coin change slot. Or periodically check under my Dad’s La-Z-Boy… every penny or dollar counted! (Nowadays, I still get excited when I find a forgotten quarter in my own pants... Read more

It's no secret that a vast majority of bond market movement these days occurs in response to a small handful of economic reports and the Fed's quarterly updates on the rate hike outlook (via the dot plot).  That means we see several weeks each month without any big ticket market... Read more